Stocks , .seems like a good opportunity to buy

There is a lot of negative sentiment currently and there is panic. Despite all the bad news I think its a good time to buy. If you are already invested in stocks and are down by 10-15% its wouldn't make sense to sell these holdings now for loss. Its best to do disciplined investing and take benefit of dollar cost averaging.

One of my experiences has been despite being disciplined it also matters the time you invest at. e.g. if the market has been going up for past 2-3 days then don't buy today. Because considering cyclic nature of market and the fact that people will try to book profit the market will go down. Similarly you must do research on the stock you want to buy. If you have done your research then you will know the range the stock has been trading in (at least roughly and if there has not been an overly good or bad news about the stock). Combining the 2 factors together buy on the day market is in RED, buy the stock which has fundamentals correct, buy when the range of stock is making the stock trade in RED.

One another minor observation has been that best time to buy is around 3:00 PM. Only because it matches my style of investing. At 3:00 PM market has gone though cycles of heavy trading and at that time of the day stock price normally is stable so you are getting a weighted value of stock and not a sentiment, panic, speculation impacted price (which is usually the case 9:30-10:00 AM.
I have also experienced that when I buy a stock at 9:45 AM I get better opportunities around 3:00 PM therefore concluding that its best to wait till later part of the day.

Of course lot of other factors are at play. What if theres a market crash ? What is Recessions pulls you down further ? Well who knows. so far industries other than housing look ok (at least they don't look overly bad). And if are in recession we are probably already half way through. :)

Online Volunteering : What is Nabuur ?

Become an online volunteer with NABUUR.com

NABUUR links you directly with people around the world who need your assistance now. All you need is a computer, a little free time, and the desire to make a difference.

The above text comes from Nabuur site. I have been a member of this site for almost 2 years now and have been part of 2 projects. One in India and another in Uganda. Both the projects have had primary goal of "Setup of Computer Center" and have had challenges of their own. Its been exciting going through all the emotions, challenges emailing organizations for support, preparing business plan from scratch and thinking about all a center can do and impact it can have on the lives of people in the local community.

In Nabuur world there are three key players:
Local Representative (who represents the local community), Neighbors (who are online volunteers who are experts or simply have time and heart to help) and Facilitators who facilitate the project and communication between the above 2 parties.

Nabuur site has gone through much evolution and probably has all the tools you will need to manage a project.

The site has projects in virtually every area you would want to contribute in and will only take a few hours of your time per week from the comfort of your home.

Happy Volunteering.

Email from Governors office (of California)

I moved from Virginia to California and received the most shocking news about my Car Insurance. My Insurance premiums jumped 300% simply because I did not have a driving history in state of California. It didn't matter if I have driven in 10 other states or have a clean record or have been driving for past 10 years. Only thing that mattered was new California resident. In my view that was plain stupid.

So went to Governor's site and found a contact us link and wrote an email about how ridiculous this policy was and got back this email in response.

So I called up Insurance Commissioners office and told them that this is not fair. The lady who answered the phone said there is a 20% rebate for a good driving record outside state. So I will have to call DMV of my previous state and get a record from them and then apply for this rebate.
So if my previous insurance was $400 and in California it came to $1200 then with a 20% rebate I still pay $1000. Fair ? No way..

Anyhows that the best that you can do.

Likewise I callup IRS or USCIS or any organization that matters. Mostly their response systems are great and operators are very informed and diligent. Best to ask the source than look at tons of websites where information might be misleading or outdated.

"Fight Change" Versus "Go with the Flow" RESULTS

It's a difficult thing - Change ! Not everyone is happy, because people build comfort zones and do not want to come out of their comfort zones. People who are impacted by change feel threatened due to various reasons "is this person trying to act smart", "why is he telling me this stuff", "I like it this way and thats what works for me best", " it will be more work for me", " I just don't time".

Having faced each of the responses given above, the best bet was to show the true value of change. Whichever way you can "Reduced Effort", " Long term benefits", "Higher Efficiency", "Better organization"..etc. Get real numbers in terms of hours, in terms of inputs from other stakeholders, in terms of long term and short term view etc.

If none of this works best is to own the change and implement it. Once people see the implementation with their own eyes they will be happier to accept change.

One critical thing that needs to be achieved before making the change is to get agreement from Sr Management. Sr Management cares about benefits in real terms, ROI, number of hours saved, collective information, way to access information better etc.

Once all the step mentioned above are implemented you are one step ahead in implementing change. :)

Investing in Stocks

I have been investing in Stocks for a while now. Invested in India and now started investing in US. So let me start with how to invest i.e. mechanics of it.

Mostly adverstized stock trading platforms are Scottrade, TD, Etrade etc. I started with Scottrade as its price per trade was lower as compared to others. Its $7 per trade. However I wanted to invest in small amounts that when price per trade becomes crucial for your bottomline :) $7 yeah!!

So wuts the answer ? I found Zecco and I guess have a perfect combination now. Use Scottrade for long term and high amount investments. Scottrade is also good for research. You get free reports from S&P and Reuters. On Zecco you get 10 trades for free per month. 10 trades is good for me.

Free trade does not mean simply buy for free. Free trade also helps doing the dollar avergage. What is Dollar Average ? Well Dollar average is what gets you into disciplined investing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging So if i bought 5 stocks at $50 and market went south and my stock reached $45. So I buy 5 more to get my cost at $47.5 for 10 stocks.

This technique works simply because its impossible to predict the bottom. So best bet is to do research, fundamentals etc. and buy in small amounts.

How to choose stock? I have made some principles ..(will post in next post).

Creating Effective Change - Jack Welch - 1

Jack Welch has inspired many (me included) have read a few of his books most remarkable being "Straight from the Gut". Of course things are changing and I guess there was an article somewhere where the author mentioned how rules made by Jack didnt apply anymore. Well article is not about Jack but we can certainly talk about how Jack created effective change and made GE into what it is today. A nimble, comptetive, progressive organization.

Managers muddle - leaders inspire. Leaders are people who inspire with clear vision of how things can be done better. "What we are looking for are leaders at every level who can energize, excite and inspire rather than enervate, depress, and control."

"Fight Change" versus "Go with the flow"

Historically change has been difficult to accept for organizations. And everytime a change is initiated there are 2 parties involved one which believes that change is not good "we are fine the way we are we have been doing ok why change ?" then there other party which believes "something is not right, we have been having issues, slipped deadlines, missed deliverables.. we need to change the system to we can improve on this".

And then there is a third kind which tries to do both but reaches nowhere their stance "yeah there are certain things that can be done better we can change..but lets not rush ..lets not disturb anything for now..things are going good ." Well as much as this statement welcomes change it delays change as well.

When an organization sees few improvements, best practices, suggestions it should at least evaluate if those suggestions are good or not. Always looking for improvements makes an organization great. That is how an organization reaches CMMi level 5 by continously improving, looking at doing things better, not waiting for change to happen but affecting change, not being an instrument of change but a change agent.

Write a brief on why you fit current role ?

This question seems relevant during an interview but I have interviewed with a company which wanted me to write a sample of product document I would produce if I were hired (they gave me a scenario) and why i would be perfect for this job before they take me to the 3rd round of interview.

Intially I thought this was only relevant to the specific job I interviewed for however one of my friends was just contacted by a web company and they wanted him to write why he is a good fit for the role.

This sounds surprising initially but then it does make sense. First such request would be for jobs like Proposal Manager, Product Manager etc. Where one of the expectations of the job is to write business requirements, documents etc. Second it helps the candidate himself to clarify his position (i believe if you write it down it becomes clearer) and you think deeper on why you think this role is a good fit and why you want to take it. Third you can add some points to your interview process by writing a solid "why I".

So if you are targeting jobs where it is expected out of you to write proposals, requirements documents etc. be prepared for such requests from potential employers.

Also one of the favorite questions of interviewers is "why should we hire you?" You cannot ignore to have good answer for this question.

Drive Trip in Los Angeles ( A Days activity)

First activity was to view Hollywood sign from near. If living in Hollywood why not capture it in picture :)

This is view from Deronda Rd. The road to Hollywood sign is closed possibly due to fire hazard or to shoo away vandals.

Deronda rd is a winding road which goes over hills and you get to see how people have build houses on hills, exotic houses, nice neighborhood and hills. You get to this place by taking exit for Gower St. from US 101. For detailed maps search hollywood sign in google maps.

Next we wanted to go to Malibu.

So I took US 101 N and travelled around 27 miles to take Malibu Canyon rd down torward valley. Finally we hit Malibu and started seeing beautiful houses along side the roads. Several hollywood actors live around that area (we didnt see anyone though :) )

I couldn't capture but on your way to Pacific Hwy you see a beautiful scene you see the Pacific Ocean from a distance and on a bright day its breathtaking.

As soon as you hit Pacific Hwy you will see Malibu beach and you be ready for parking on the right side. There are several places where you can park on the side and enjoy the beautiful Malibu beach.

To take a break I had decided to stop at Topanga State Park. Topanga State Park is good for people who want to take rest, unwind, trek, hike ..Basically enjoy the wilderness. Again winding roads, nice drive.

Finally I took Topanga Canyon Rd to US 101 to head back home in the evening.

Another beatiful view from the top of the valley.

This view is on our way down from Topanga Canyon Rd.

Overall a good one day trip.

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Typical Interview Process

The best way to prepare about the position is to understand:

- Job description as mentioned in Job Notification. Make sure you cover all points mentioned in the job description and research as much as possible.

- Identify how your profile matches to this job description. You should be confident about every point you have in your profile. Eventually the goal of the hiring organization is to do a fitment check. Prepare before hand how you will fit in that organization.

- Typical format of an interview is Screening (over phone) by HR, Phone Interview with (someone from hiring organization), Face to face interview (several interviews in increasing order to designation or panel interviews), final phone interview (not in all cases but in some cases a follow up interview is done ..probably because more determination is made where the candidate will fit and that manager wants to know more). Offer.

- If you are Project Manager and looking for a Project / Functional role then other than your technical background which would need brush up , you must go through PMBOK.

Rest depends on specific organization you are looking at, research as much as possible.

Job Search in US (What worked for me)

First of all be sure what you are looking for. If you have a background in IT Services would you be looking in the services industry or are you looking for an American company a permanent job.

There will be several offers for contract jobs, be clear if you are looking for those, if not then simply focus on perm focus. Along the job search there is a major distraction of such offers. Save the energy for searching for right jobs at the right place.

Now if you have decided to go IT Services route I know people and friends in companies like TCS, INfosys , Wipro, Accenture, Sapient, IBM, etc. This way they get referrals, CV goes directly to the HR rather than a CV bin and everybody wins. CV being shortlisted and getting an interview call is a different ball game altogeather.

If you are looking for a Perm Job in American Company. Same logic applies as mentioned above except more needs to be done on job search front. Try having a professional network profile in a site like linkedin and add all your contacts you know from past (education, job etc). Stastically (not sure of the source but certainly some leading, renowed data bank), maximum jobs , key jobs are through networking.

Finally Job sites. I had accounts with Monster, Careerbuilder, Yahoo hot jobs, dice etc. For pure tech jobs I guess dice works best. Yahoo hot jobs gives least number and least relevant jobs (at least for me), monster is ok while careerbuilder is better than the rest and has some smart tools and comfortable layout etc.

However what really works is Linkedin and Ladders. Linkedin is catching up these days and best part is recruiters from companies have profiles there (you can look at their history, clients etc.) so you can reach out to recruiters directly. Same for Ladders, not only they have jobs listed (some exclusively ladders like Linkedin) but they you can search for recruiters also (who have jobs in specific areas and job functions etc. more targetted basically). Only catch is you pay up $30 for monthly membership (my take worth it considering whats at stake for you).

Bottomline network, reach out, spend some time on sites like Linkedin and Ladders. Look at your competition (other profiles which match urs but look better on these sites).

I can push CV in Fox Interactive Media (Myspace) reach out to me in case you are looking for a job here.

On a lighter note a friend of mine told me to be patient for the right job. It takes as many number of months to get a job as many years of experience you have :) If you have 7 yrs of experience it might take you 7 months. :) Ofcourse I did not believe that ..but an interesting thought..isnt it ?

SCRUM Process

Currently we are using SCRUM process in our company. SCRUM is a good software delivery mechanism but is not for every organization and does not focus on all aspects. SCRUM focuses on short sprints (as name suggests what can be achieved in short time - sprint focus on that).

While its an advantage to focus on only the planned sprint it fails in having a long term view.

A typical example would be a web company which wants to roll small features out quick.

Team chooses the duration of the Sprint 2 weeks, 3 weeks wutever works. Three key players are involved: Scrum Master, Team and Product Manager.

Product Manager is the person who gets requirements from sponsors and ships it out to SCRUM master.

SCRUM master is not a true Project Manager, is a facilitator, is a coordinator and believes in completing the task at hand (2 weeks sprint).

SCRUM teams participate in Sprint Planning meetings where it is decided what activities / features or stories (as they are called) will be included in current sprint.

And then there is Product Owner who can also be the Product Manager but is not an ideal case. Product Owner is the person who works with stakeholders directly and is responsible in making a call as to which story is important for his sprint etc. For the sake of this discussion lets forget the product owner and concentrate on our three players before.

So a Sprint starts with Sprint Planning meeting. At Sprint Planning meeting team has a list of proposed stories which should be included in current Sprint.

Scrum Master manages discussion and activities in planning meeting and updation in tools which can be used to manage this. SCRUM Master puts all these stories on a board under backlog. Now you pick first and ask the product manager what this story is about. Once you know wut its about you ask the team who wants to work on it. People raise hands and own the story (remember SCRUM is a democratic process and believes in team volunteering for work. Ultimate goal of the team is to complete all story points committed by team and everyone works to complete this). With person assigned to a story now is the time for estimation. You estimate in days or hours your choice but you can only pick numbers from Fibonacci sequence. i.e. 1,2,3,5,8,13 ......idea is to force people to estimate correctly . Story Points as they are called should include time required and complexity and thus making up total of 5 or 8 or 13. Once this is achieved other cards are picked up and you discuss all stories planned.
next critical step is to decide how many stories this sprint. For that history is looked at and number is called velocity. Velocity is the achieved story points for the team. On top of that you add a focus factor (typically for teams which has unplanned work, maintenance etc. ) And you get current velocity team can commit to. Suppose your past velocity was 18 and in current sprint you have 20 story points (for 4 stories) you need to check other factors (maybe you have an extra resource this sprint or you have one resource at 50%) With that you decide the stories you want to implement.

So suppose your past velocity was 18 and focus factor was 60% (achieved / planned = .6) then current planned velocity = 18*.6 = 10.8. Now you need to make a judgment call if you have team and resources to plan something like 18 or go by what numbers tell you.

With this you have a plan for 2 weeks and you focus on completing this. People who own a story focus on completing it and people who don't focus on helping others. This data is added into a tool (several are available in the market). And status is taken in daily scrums. Daily Scrum is an exercise where everyone stands up (therefore called stand up meeting) to keep focus, keep people active etc. and every team members gives status on 3 things: 1: What did they do yesterday, 2: What will they do today 3: Any Impediments.

You can also plan a weekly status meeting to have an overall status check. For reporting you can send out status emails if the tool you are using does not give enough. Some tools are good and some give good snapshot of burn down (stories used, actuals, remaining, discovered work etc.).

Stories not completed in current sprint go back to Product Backlog which is mast log of all activities / features.

Repeat the exercise for next sprint.

Defintion of Success (in my words)

“Success cannot be measured, it can be felt. Goals can be set, measured and accomplished but success in life can only be attained if you have done the following:

1. Followed your Karma: Karma is the concept of "action" or "deed" in Indian religions understood as denoting the entire cycle of cause and effect. Whatever profession you are in did you do you best. Again the measure is not how you pare with others or what rating you achieved in you annual appraisals but is measured by the fact that given an opportunity what did you do with it ? Did you give it your best? Karma also includes responsibilities as a brother, husband, friend. Did you fulfill your responsibilities. Will these relations blink when answering what they think of you ?
   
2. Dharma: Dharma signifies the underlying order in nature and life (human or other) considered to be in accord with that order. The word Dharma literally means 'that which upholds or supports' (from the root 'Dhr' - to hold), here referring to the order which makes the cosmos and the harmonious complexity of the natural world possible. It's upto an individual to follow his dharma. Whichever religion one belongs to did he follow what his Dharma says. Working for non-profit and volunteer organization and helping others can be one's dharma. Its your choice if you include it as your dharma and follow it.
   
3. Fullfilment: There is no harm in asking for more :) The critial question is how much more. If you are taking good care of your family, if you are fulfilling your needs, if you are making enough to enjoy life (what ever interests you have)...then you are enjoying your life as it should be. This sense of fulfillment will last only for a phase, since life moves on, new needs will come up, new goals need to be set and hence new effort to keep the fulfillment stage on in your life. Of course there is much more and its a personal opinion.!!!””

PM Keywords (less heard ones)

Rolling Wave Planning: You plan for only a few weeks (this is different from SCRUM where you plan only for a sprint). Once one week work is complete you add one week to your schedule.

Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) – Show who does what (x=person, y=phase). The most important feature of the RAM is the participatory development process involving all stakeholders. Show who is participant, who is accountable, who handles reviews, who provides input and who must sign off on specific work packages or project phases.

Motivational Theory: Content & Process Theories

Content: “What” energizes, directs behavior –

1. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Theory (Physiological, Safety, Social/Belonging, Esteem, Self-Actualization)

2. Hertzberg’s Motivator/Hygiene Theories (Motivator: Self-Actualization, Esteem ; Hygiene: Social, Safety, Physiological)

Process: “How” personal factors influence behavior

1. McGregor’s Theory X and Theory Y (X: Assumes people lack ambition, dislike responsibility, are inherently self-centered and are not very bright; motivate by reward and punishment. Y: Assumes people become lazy w/o recognition, will accept responsibility, can become self-motivated and exercise self-control; motivate by removing obstacles and providing self-directed environment.)

2. Ouchi’s Theory Z/Japanese Theory ( focus on team, company; usually lifetime employment, collective decisionmaking )

Monte Carlo Analysis - computer simulation of project outcomes using PERT estimates; result represented in S curve. Provides the ability to compute the probability of completing a project on a specific day. Can also be used to assess feasibility of schedule under adverse conditions (eg when a schedule constraint is identified)

Heuristics - rules of thumb

Ishikawa: Made popular Pareto Chart, Cause-and-Effect Diagram and Control Chart.

Taguchi Method: Is used to estimate the loss associated with controlling or failing to control process variability. If you select good design parameters, you can produce products that are forgiving and tolerant. The tool helps determine the value or break-even point of improving a process to reduce variability.

Delphi Technique:A forecasting technique used to gather information; it relies on gathering expert opinions. usually goes three rounds; Gain consensus of expert opinions.

Kaizen: Continuous Improvement.


Gold Plating: Giving the customer more than was required, it has no value.

Kaizen (Continous Improvement): Japanese term. Kai (alter) Zen (make better or improve). Small improvements in products or processes to reduce costs and ensure consistency of performance of products or services.

Statistical Independence: The probability of one event occurring does not affect the probability of another event occurring (e.g. rolling a dice in subsequent rolls)

Marginal Analysis: The concept of optimal quality level is reached at the point where the incremental revenue from the product improvement equals the incremental cost to secure it.

Halo Effect: The tendency to rate high or low on all factors due to the impression of a high or low rating on a specific factor. This can mean, "You are a great programmer. Therefore, we will make you a Project Manager and also expect you to be great".

Learn't some interesting lessons about Chaos

I posted a question on a social job site to see how others respond to necessity of Processes in a no processes world in an organization. And some of the inputs were very interesting and they went to the root of the problem.

Managing Chaos "There is no managing chaos. There is only working through chaos with very small incremental process creation and application. Once people start to see how automation and process expands your circle of influence, because you get things done and make advancements in the company rather than always fighting fires (which won't go entirely away by the way), then they may follow."

Benefits of Chaos: " Chaos is exciting, stimulating, they feel energized by the challenge like the rush of getting it done against the odds, even if they have helped create the odds."

Quite Interesting insights. While there is a world which has learnt lessons (maybe too much) and made words like six sigma, CMMI, ISO very common. There is another world which is at conflict and does not agree with a format. Do processes kill innovation ? I don't agree, but good to know what others think.